S&P 500: Expected Pullback Has Arrived - Rally Time?

In our update from last week for the S&P 500 (SPX), see here, we "anticipate[d] a red W-ii soon, ideally down to $3875+/-25, before the red W-iii to ideally $4275+/-50 kicks in."

Back then, the index was at $3997. It topped at $4015 earlier this week and dropped to $3885 yesterday. So far, so good. Now the index is staging a rally. Thus, the main question is whether the correction is complete or not.

Before we answer that question, for those not familiar with my work, I primarily use the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) in combination with technical analyses to assess the market's next most likely moves and where it should top and bottom with a reasonable margin of error. As such, our primary expectation has been for many weeks:

"Once the $3800+/-70 zone is reached, …, we must entertain the notion all of black W-b has already bottomed out. From there, we anticipated the more significant c-wave rally to $4300+." See Figure 1 below. Note C waves comprise five waves. In this case, the red W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v in Figure 1. Moreover, red W-i, iii, and v are made up of five smaller (green) waves, 1-2-3-4-5, whereas red W-ii and iv comprise three waves, a-b-c, showing the fractal nature of the financial markets."

S&P 500 Daily Chart

The SPX bottomed at $3764 on December 22, 2022, for black W-b and rallied in five smaller (green) waves to $4015 earlier this week for red W-i. Because of these five smaller waves, we knew that a pullback was imminent. Besides, typically a 2^nd wave retraces between 50-76% of the previous 1^st wave; hence, why I called for a pullback soon to $3875+/-25 last week.

With yesterday's low at $3884, which is the 50% retrace of red W-i, the index has technically done enough to consider the correction complete. However, the green "a?, b?, c?" labels show we cannot yet dismiss red W-ii becomes more pronounced and subdivided. It can now be in green W-b to around $3950+/-25 before green W-c down to $3820-50 takes hold. But, if the index closes above this week's high, then red W-iii is essentially confirmed, barring an irregular flat W-ii. A drop below yesterday's low from the $3950+/-25 zone signals green W-c? is in progress.

Thus, our conclusion from last week: "… unless the index breaks back below the December 22 low, with a first warning below $3850, there is no reason for this [Bullish, dip-rally] pattern not to unfold, and the following multi-day correction should be considered a low-risk buying opportunity," was correct.

It is a matter of "all of W-ii is complete" vs. "W-ii will become more complex." We will know soon enough as such detail cannot be elucidated yet based on the limited price data available. But for now, I prefer to look higher short- to intermediate-term. Once SPX4300+ is reached, I will become much more cautious in anticipation of the blue C wave.